The Annual Misconceptions About Recruiting Post

I haven't done this in several years. At least I don't recall doing it in several years. Every year, when I read the boards, there's always about 10 cats jumping to wild assumptions based on their preconceived notions about how college football recruiting works. Here's a primer list of misconceptions:

1. Recruiting is just like they show it in the movies.

- Not even close. For one, they have no way to show the endless hours coaches spend watching film, talking to coaches, talking to parents, and especially talking to players. Furthermore, recruiting is not about SALESMANSHIP it's about RELATIONSHIP. I don't want to get into a chicken vs. the egg issue, but Mack Brown did not suddenly become a superstar recruiter at Texas. He was hauling similar classes at North Carolina, too. This leads to my next point, and probably the most important:

2. Winning always means great recruiting.

- Way off. Great recruiters recruit greatly regardless of the program. Never, ever forget that. Pete Carroll isn't a great recruiter because he's at USC. The man could have recruited almost as well at Washington State, he just wouldn't have had the added benefit of being in the heart of one of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country. Winning does not recruit. Winning opens doors to recruits you did not previously have access to. This is always what trips up fans. Putting three or four successful years can definitely have an impact on getting recruits, but in the end it's about the people you have recruiting, not really about the product you've previously put on the field. There's also a side misconception that the offensive line coach recruits the offensive linemen, the secondary coach recruits defensive backs, etc. Not true. Staff members are given a geographic region and direction towards which recruits to focus on. They're also responsible for attending games in that region and spotting previously unknown talent. So it's more common, for example, to have your secondary coach recruiting Fresno to be working with a wide receiver, a tight end, and a linebacker. Those kids may not even know the names of their position coaches until they come in for an official visit.

3. Head coaches must be great recruiters to have a great recruiting class.

- Not entirely true. What is true is the best recruiting staffs start with a great recruiter at the top, but it's not entirely necessary. What's most important is each staff has two or three people whose most special talent is developing trusting relationships with teenagers, preferably starting at, say, 16-years-old. Then it's important that the head coach can close, or at least come off genuine enough with the parents to not damage the work the star staff recruiters have done. At most programs, the staff does 80 percent or more of the hard work in recruiting. Head coaches tend to focus on the impact players, but if it comes down to the wire on any player the staff wants, the head coach will almost always get involved there.

4. Recruiting rankings aren't important.

- This is going too far, IMO. The bulk of people involved in ranking recruits: (a) have no playing or coaching experience at any level; (b) know much less about football than they think they do; (c) are almost entirely reliant on the opinions of their peers to justify their rankings. That said, all of those people can't be that far off about the overall group of players. They may whiff hard on a top-rated quarterback or running back. That makes sense. There's too many variables there (type of offense, stability of staff, surrounding talent) to expect them to accurately project every skill player. They'll usually puff up a few players that are workout warriors but have shown real football ability. But the overall rankings ... if a school lands three jumbo athletes with skill-type speed, what are the chances those kids won't produce in big ways? If USC recruits 10 Top 100 players, that's a high-ranking class that deserves the props, because it will be a success if 5 or more of those players have big impacts on the field. What's the difference between the No. 5 class and the No. 20 class? It could be a huge chasm or nothing at all depending on attrition, injuries, and how many kids from the No. 20 class stick around for four or more years. Also, if a program has one No. 5 class surrounded by three classes in the 40s, the program that regularly recruits in the Top 20 is likely to out perform the other every year. Or at least it's fairly safe to say the the team the recruits the most consistently has more available talent.

5. If my coaching staff can't land high rated classes, they should be canned

- I will never understand the hostility from fans regarding recruiting classes. Most of them never seem to see the bigger picture. Recruiting is always, in the end, about performance. If you have a program that is stuck on 6 wins and the coach elevates you to an 8+ win plateau, is there a reason to gripe? Ten years of 8+ wins puts you in a very elite class -- the annual Top 20 -- and a program that has the respect of other coaches, if not national worship. It also puts the program in the position to take another step up with luck and pluck. College football is an endurance sport. Keep your winning coach on the sidelines for a long time and make a financial committment. It's not how a coach recruits in ONE SPECIFIC YEAR. It's how a coach (and his staff) recruit for the duration of their stay at a program. That defines a coach's recruiting. Always. If a coach lands, say, a No. 30 class for four straight years, there's plenty of talent there to be successful and possibly exceed the ranking of the classes with a little luck and a few players who improve. It's even better if the attrition rates mean keeping those playres in school. Solid attrition almost always = winning football; never underestimate a team with a consistently stable second team.

Bummer

There is little need for an in-depth analysis of the Thanksgiving day loss to USC. When the team with the superior talent plays its "A" game, it usually wins. As much as people like to criticize the "star" ratings of the recruiting services, USC demonstrated what a team full of 4-star and 5-star recruits looks like. Could ASU have played better or done some things differently to pull of the upset? Sure. But if we played that game 10 times, USC would win at least 8 of the games.

The main thing that this game proved is how insane USC's loss to Stanford was. If they had won that game, they would be right at the top of the National Championship conversation.

I don't see this game as a setback for the program. "Reality check" would be a better term. We can't get to the next level until we get more studs on the roster. What happens next February on signing day will have far more impact on the program than what happened on Thanksgiving.

While we were gone...

Random events in Sun Devil land. The Sun Devil Marching Band unveiled new uniforms (the band even has its own message board!); TBone is looking for Sun Devils in Texas (not 100% sure what he plans to do with them); I found a site that everyone else has probably known about for a long time, which allows me to track news stories about Dennis Erickson; Gaddabout wrote a brief ASU recruiting history; Uni Watch discussed why one member of the baseball team has been wearing a green undershirt for each game.

Looks like swagger to me

Omar Bolden signing video, courtesy of YouTube

Omar Bolden rapidly becoming everyone's favorite Sun Devil

Fans always gravitate to the new guy, but this will be especially true over the next few months as Omar Bolden quickly endears himself to Sun Devil Nation.

Quoted in today's San Bernardino County Sun, Bolden says:

I was waiting on SC forever. That's where I wanted to go. It was getting ridiculous. It got to the point where I wanted to hurt them.

Please hurt them on Thanksgiving Day.

Thanks to AStateAStateAState for the link!

If anyone posts video of his signing day announcement to YouTube, please add a link to the comments.

Wake up kids, it's Christmas!

Sun Devil Law: no matter what, welcome each and every recruit today with open arms. Remember, they are signing their Letters-of-Intent today because they want to be Sun Devils. Don't worry about the kids that sign elsewhere -- why would we want them here if they don't want to be Sun Devils?

Now, let's run downstairs and find what Santa left under the tree.

Update: well, we found pretty much what we were expecting. A solid class capped by the addition of Omar Bolden. Before you get too excited or too disappointed, keep in mind that it's the 2008 and 2009 classes that really matter.

What happens if you have a computer and too much time

MapGameDay.com is planning to allow you to waste your time tomorrow in truly awesome fashion.

Thanks to The Wizards of Odds via Deadspin for the link.

Also, it looks like you'll be able to watch a webcast of the signing day press conference, although it's not clear whether this will be free, or for subscribers of The Sun Devils Sports Network only.

Make sure that fax machine is plugged in

Well, in 48 hours the fax machines in Athletic Departments all over the country should start humming as high school kids start sending in their Letters of Intent.

The NCAA mandates that this week is a dead period, so no more contact is allowed. Of course, some coaches believe these rules do not apply to them, and play pickup basketball with recruits despite the "no contact" rule.

Despite my earlier proclamation that surprises never happen on LOI day, this year could be different. Expect a couple of additions to the latest list of commitments.

Cloak and dagger recruiting tales

It's impossible to really understand life as a college football coach on the recruiting trail. It's never simply a matter of contacting recruits and selling them on your school and program.

It's really a low-grade game of cloak-and-dagger, and the stories coaches tell (years after, when the top secret status has been downgraded by time and graduation) would make you wonder about the sanity of it all.

Consider the recruitment of John Jefferson, a story that has taken on a life of its own. Frank Kush once told a story about hiding Jefferson from late comers, and it has become bigger than life as it's been retold from booster to booster.

If you believe the latest versions, Kush sent staffers to Jefferson's Dallas home, moved him to a hotel, and hid out until he signed his Letter of Intent on the first day he could (a day which we've come to know as the magical First Wednesday in February, and which will someday be recognized as a national holiday).

Then there's the story of O.J. Simpson. ASU had him at the airport and had all but locked up the future superstar and, sadly, future social pariah. But back then, O.J. was just a blue-chip JC running back recruit in a full-scale tug of war between ASU and USC. As the story goes, an ASU assistant let O.J. go to the airport restroom where he was met by a USC recruiter who talked him into returning home on the sly. Of course, O.J. went on to star at USC and later in the NFL, with Buffalo as one of the all-time greatest running backs.

Then there are the stories that seem of tantamount of importance at the time, but never really fit the test of time. For example, receivers coach Karl Dorrell left ASU for a similar job at Colorado. Dorrell was perhaps the key in-state recruiter for ASU, and was recruiting All-American receiver Kenny Mitchell. For a moment, Dorrell had turned Mitchell's head towards Colorado, but ASU reversed him at the last moment to get him to sign with ASU. It seemed like a huge recruiting coup at the time, but Mitchell waited nearly 4 years before displaying All-American skills, while less heralded recruit Lenzie Jackson became Jake Plummer's workhorse receiver during that era.

There weren't many stories of this caliber under the Koetter era of ASU football because Koetter's staff took a very above-board approach to recruiting. They waited to evaluate recruits' senior seasons and more or less played in the pool of recruits that had yet to commit. They did not have a hard-sell agenda, and that appealed to some recruits, but probably resulted in a less-than-desirable annual yield.

We should probably expect more of these types of stories under Dennis Erickson's staff. There seems to be a pirate flag flying over Tempe these days, and the staff appears willing to pump recruits hard -- committed or otherwise -- until the NCAA rings the bell on the season's recruiting. While nobody wants other coaching staffs to raid their own stockpile of commitments, it does seem to be a reality that to produce big-time results, you have to play by the standards of your opponents. That means taking whatever you can get, even if it means pilfering from another program's stash.

In the meantime, it's probably not a bad idea to have a few cloak-and-dagger tricks and a hotel room or two to protect your own.

Best quote you'll read all year

Today's Republic includes a well-written article by Jeff Metcalfe regarding Dennis Erickson's early success in recruiting, despite the lack of big name commitments to this year's class.

The article includes this quote from Allen Wallace. It's something we should all learn by heart:

One of the most fundamental wrong focuses of a coach's first year is who he brings in. It's the least important thing. Fans want everything, to fix the future and the immediate. The new coach is supposed to do in two-three months what everybody else hasn't done in a year. It's not going to happen that way.

It sounds like DE and his staff are a lot more focused on building the foundation for future classes, versus this year's haul.

Having said that, Metcalfe also reports that ASU received two more commitments yesterday, including one from Jonathan English from Louisiana.

What to Expect When You're Expecting

Twenty years ago, the best day of the year for the geek football fan was NFL draft day. Back then, it was still only an event that the hardcore fan set aside on their calendar.

Now that the NFL draft is mainstream, the new "best day of the year" for overly obsessive fans is National Letter of Intent day, also known as LOI day, which is usually the first Wednesday of February.

If you have already scheduled to take the day off work, or are planning to work from home in order to be able to hit the Refresh button on your PC 100 times per hour all day, then your priorities are probably out of whack. However, let's face it, it's fun. Just like Christmas, and just like draft day, on LOI day everyone is a winner.

Since some of you will be about to experience your first internet LOI day, here are a few things you should and should not expect:

- DO expect an official announcement at around 5p.m. AZ time -- usually no word from ASU until an official press release gets posted to the Sun Devils website in the late afternoon. Often you will get confirmation of a few signings prior to the official release from one of the recruiting sites.
- DO expect one or two names to be missing, but don't painc -- each year one or two LOIs arrive too late for inclusion in the initial release, so if the name of one commitment is missing, don't be too worried (unless he shows up on another school's LOI list!!!)
- Do NOT expect many surprises -- every year we hope for a couple of unexpected names to appear on the list. Never happens. If you follow the major recruiting sites, then by Monday or Tuesday you'll have a pretty solid idea of who will sign.
- DO expect a major outpouring of grief on the message boards. Topics you can be sure to read about will be: "See, this proves that Dennis Erickson is useless". "See, this proves that Dirk Koetter should never have been fired", "See, this proves that Ron English should have been hired", "ASU will never win another game", "I will not renew my season tickets", "Does [Insert Name Here] know how cold it is in [Insert State Here] in the winter?", "au has beaten us again in the rankings", etc. Seasoned posters know to stay well clear of the message boards for at least 48 hours following LOI day.
- Do NOT expect anyone to rationally point out that this year's class is, for the most part, an irrelevance in the big picture. DE's success at ASU will be defined by his 2008 and (even more) his 2009 classes. Hopefully he is laying the foundation for those classes right now.
- DO expect great things from the kids that sign. This will be a special class, probably comprising more overachiever types than usual. Welcome them all with open arms; after all, they have chosen to be SUN DEVILS. Who knows, they may be the first class to win two Rose Bowls in the maroon-and-gold.

Why do recruits pick a certain school?

Trying to get inside the mind of a teenager is difficult at best, yet people who follow the recruiting process seem to be continually amazed as to why a high school athlete would elect to sign a Letter of Intent with a specific school. Having followed the recruiting process for ten years, it is obvious to me that the factors that really do influence many kids are not the same things that we think should influence their decision. This disconnect is especially apparent this year, when a handful of kids from Arizona High Schools have made non-binding commitments to Nebraska. Having read hundreds of "do they know how bad the weather is in Nebraska?" posts, it occurs to me that the average fan misunderstands why the majority of kids select a specific school.

The things that really do influence a high school kid's decision:

Immediate playing time - kids want to play, and they want to play soon (if not in their first year, then certainly by their second).
Relationship with assistant coach - most kids are recruited by a specific assistant on the staff, not by the Head Coach. When I read quotes from kids after they make a commitment, I nearly always read that “I got on great with Coach X, and we chat every week.”
Opportunity to make the pros – although a small percentage of Division 1-A players will make the NFL, they all think they will. Kids want to believe that their choice of school will prepare them for the next level.
Academics – this works both ways. Some kids want to use their athletic skills to get a free education at a top flight school. Quite honestly, who could blame Mike Mitchell for going to Stanford or Darnell Autry from choosing Northwestern? Don’t get me wrong, ASU can provide a first-class education, but it doesn’t have the same reputation as the elite institutions. On the other hand, some kids may need to look for a school with lower academic standards than ASU.
Availability of choice of major – on a related note, some kids have a very specific major in mind and want to go to a school where that major is featured. Last year, Myron Rolle (who wants to become a neurosurgeon) selected Florida State because of their pre-med program. I recall reading an article that mentioned he was impressed by FSU because when he went for his official visit they took him to meet the faculty before he met the coaches.
TV exposure – this is one area where all the Pac-10 schools, with the notable exception of USC, lose out big time. Michigan can come in to Arizona and tell a kid that his parents will be able to watch him on TV every week. ASU cannot go to Michigan and tell a kid there the same thing. Also, because Pac-10 teams get little exposure outside of the Pac-10 states, kids outside that territory do not grow up dreaming of becoming a Sun Devil.
Parental influence (and sometimes, parental interference) – personally, if my mother had told me to go to School X, I would have crossed it off my list immediately, but some kids do listen to their parents, and some parents are more opinionated than others.
High school coach – many kids respect their high school coach. In some cases, he is probably their dominant father figure. So if your coach tells you that School X is no good, or School Y is the place to be, it’s bound to have an impact.
Distance between home and school – some kids want to play close to home so that their friends and family can attend every game. Others probably want to get a long way away from home. (Of course, at USC the boosters will fly your parents in every weekend so distance is less of an issue!).
General impression of the athletic department – au’s basketball program probably helps their football recruiting more than anything their football program has ever done. au hoops is truly a national program, and that certainly helps the school’s name recognition.
Fan support – if you were a recruit and made your official visit to Nebraska and saw the stadium full, with everyone wearing red, how could you not be impressed? And if you then attended a game at a half-full Sun Devil Stadium, with most people arriving mid-way through the first quarter and gone by mid-way through the fourth quarter, how could it not have an impact?

Things we think should influence their decision that are overrated:

Weather – first of all, I have never heard a kid say “I selected San Diego State because the weather in San Diego is perfect”. Never. Ever. Second, most of ASU’s recruiting is in California, and it’s hard to argue that Arizona’s weather is better than California’s. Third, kids growing up in AZ may be sick of the hot summers, and the prospect of attending a school in a different climate may actually be attractive to them. Forth, most of the recruiting visits take place in the early fall, when it can still be hot in AZ. Those recruits who baked in the sun during the Oregon game this past season probably didn’t walk away too excited about the prospect of playing and practicing in that heat for six months of the year.
Girls – sure, the girls at ASU are probably the best on earth, but every school has cute co-eds.
Facilities – yes, ASU has a great weights room, but so do most of the other top schools. All of the Pac-10 programs have upgraded their facilities over the past few years. ASU is keeping up, but we’re not pulling away.
Town location – many of the top programs in the nation are is backwater towns that wouldn’t exist save for the university. But that doesn’t stop kids from attending year after year. Mill Ave. is great, but a kid’s not going to choose ASU because of it.
Head Coach – most kids have very little contact with the Head Coach diring the recruiting process. His role is usually that of the closer. Being an effective closer is critical, but few kids make their decision based on who the top man is (unless his future is in doubt, in which case the uncertainty can have a major impact).
Legacy – just because “Jimmy” is the son of a Sun Devil legend doesn’t mean he’ll want to follow his father’s footsteps. Gerald Riggs barely gave us a glance as he made his way to Tennessee.

Success means beating USC, UCLA, Cal off the field

CFN, a publication I've never been able to fully endorse, has a respectable list of Top 30 players in the Pac-10 regardless of position.

ASU had two players make the list for this past season, Zach Miller and Ryan Torain. One has announced his NFL eligibility, while the other probably thought long and hard about it.

Meanwhile, USC, UCLA, and Cal racked up 19 of the top positions between them. The thin spread of premium talent doesn't appear to change much next year. Only Oregon State's Sammie Stroughter breaks the monopoly on those three schools stranglehold of Top 10 returning talent.

If you are a Pac-10 program wanting to challenge for top dog status, you have to beat those three schools in recruiting -- two of them in their own backyard. There's no other path. We've seen forays in Texas, Illinois, and the Midwest the past 20 years with very mixed results. Winning the battles in SoCal have produced two Rose Bowl teams. There's no alternative.

What Dirk meant....

Certain cryptic comments made by Dirk Koetter after being fired have caused a mild stir in Sun Devil Nation. Koetter in his usual guarded self left much room for interpretation when he was quoted saying "The thing is, and I was guilty of this, a lot of people look at ASU on the outside and have this perception of what Arizona State is. And that's not what it is. You have to go on the inside for a while". Some Devil fans were outraged by these comments viewing them as a parting shot by Koetter. While others looked at it as a view to some of the issues that Koetter and now Dennis Erickson face as the head of the football program. A recent article from the San Diego Union Tribune about SDSU recruiting might give some insight into Koetter's remarks. The article and the accompanying chart show ASU as a school that has been reluctant to make exceptions when admitting student athletes who don't meet the normal admission standards of the school. Obviously this practice does not aid ASU in recruiting, but let’s not let Koetter off the hook based on this information. It's hard to make the argument that ASU admission standards are at such a high level that makes them non-competitive. There were much deeper issues that hurt ASU recruiting under Koetter. Too many local and elite recruits reported ASU interest level as mild. ASU was typically a non factor in major Los Angeles and Northern California area prospects. Sure there were some close calls such as with Brigham Harwell, but that was an exception the last 5 years. With many top instate recruits ASU seemed to get in late compared to other big schools. Gerell Robinson a top player for 2008 has already declared to Arizona. Moving forward the question is will Erickson have enough gravitas to affect change in ASU admission policy and in the larger sense will he be as successful in recruiting as he was at Oregon State and Miami.